{"id":206869,"date":"2026-04-07T11:12:04","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T15:12:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infoelnuevonorte.com\/?p=206869"},"modified":"2026-04-07T11:12:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T15:12:05","slug":"el-calor-extremo-y-las-sequias-seran-cinco-veces-mas-frecuentes-al-final-del-siglo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infoelnuevonorte.com\/?p=206869","title":{"rendered":"El calor extremo y las sequ\u00edas ser\u00e1n cinco veces m\u00e1s frecuentes al final del siglo"},"content":{"rendered":"<!--[if lt IE 9]><script>document.createElement('audio');<\/script><![endif]-->\n<audio class=\"wp-audio-shortcode\" id=\"audio-206869-1\" preload=\"none\" style=\"width: 100%;\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"audio\/mpeg\" src=\"https:\/\/infoelnuevonorte.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/ttsmaker-vip-file-2026-4-7-11-11-10.mp3?_=1\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/infoelnuevonorte.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/ttsmaker-vip-file-2026-4-7-11-11-10.mp3\">https:\/\/infoelnuevonorte.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/ttsmaker-vip-file-2026-4-7-11-11-10.mp3<\/a><\/audio>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">La combinaci\u00f3n del\u00a0<strong>calor extremo<\/strong>\u00a0y las\u00a0<strong>sequ\u00edas<\/strong>\u00a0ser\u00e1n\u00a0<strong>cinco veces m\u00e1s frecuentes<\/strong>\u00a0al final del siglo si se mantienen las pol\u00edticas clim\u00e1ticas actuales.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Este es un fen\u00f3meno que afectar\u00e1 gravemente a cerca del 30 por ciento de la poblaci\u00f3n y que impactar\u00e1 m\u00e1s a los\u00a0<strong>pa\u00edses tropicales<\/strong>\u00a0con\u00a0<strong>menos ingresos<\/strong>, los que menos contribuyen al calentamiento global.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Los dos eventos (sequ\u00eda y\u00a0<strong>calor extremo<\/strong>) generan conjuntamente riesgos mayores que cada uno por separado, y amenazan la\u00a0<strong>seguridad alimentaria<\/strong>, la salud humana y el acceso al agua, adem\u00e1s de enfatizar la \"<strong>profunda injusticia clim\u00e1tica<\/strong>\".<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Esto se debe a que los\u00a0<strong>pa\u00edses con menos recursos<\/strong>\u00a0para adaptarse sufrir\u00e1n las\u00a0<strong>consecuencias<\/strong>\u00a0m\u00e1s severas de las emisiones generadas por\u00a0<strong>potencias industriales<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Son las\u00a0<strong>principales conclusiones<\/strong>\u00a0de un\u00a0<strong>estudio<\/strong>\u00a0que han realizado\u00a0<strong>investigadores<\/strong>\u00a0de la\u00a0<strong>Universidad Oce\u00e1nica de China<\/strong>\u00a0y del\u00a0<strong>Instituto Alfred Wegener<\/strong>\u00a0alem\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Ellos han observado c\u00f3mo podr\u00edan evolucionar las condiciones hasta finales del siglo y han realizado para ello\u00a0<strong>152 simulaciones<\/strong>\u00a0basadas en\u00a0<strong>ocho modelos clim\u00e1ticos<\/strong>, considerando diversos escenarios de crecimiento demogr\u00e1fico y calentamiento global que se describen en el\u00a0<strong>Sexto Informe de Evaluaci\u00f3n<\/strong>\u00a0del Panel Intergubernamental sobre el Cambio Clim\u00e1tico (<strong>IPCC<\/strong>).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Los\u00a0<strong>investigadores<\/strong>\u00a0han publicado hoy los resultados de su trabajo en la revista\u00a0<strong>Geophysical Research Letters<\/strong>, de la\u00a0<strong>Uni\u00f3n Geof\u00edsica Americana<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">El an\u00e1lisis sugiere que cumplir con los\u00a0<strong>acuerdos internacionales<\/strong>\u00a0de emisiones podr\u00eda reducir significativamente el n\u00famero de personas expuestas a estos peligros ambientales, y que las\u00a0<strong>decisiones pol\u00edticas<\/strong>\u00a0actuales determinar\u00e1n la calidad de vida y supervivencia de miles de millones de personas en las pr\u00f3ximas d\u00e9cadas.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Relaci\u00f3n entre ambos eventos<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">El equipo de\u00a0<strong>investigadores<\/strong>\u00a0ha subrayado que el calor y la sequ\u00eda se potencian mutuamente, y en situaciones extremas provocan\u00a0<strong>restricciones de agua<\/strong>\u00a0e inestabilidad en los precios de los alimentos, adem\u00e1s de un mayor\u00a0<strong>riesgo de incendios<\/strong> forestales, p\u00e9rdidas agr\u00edcolas y una mayor mortalidad.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Los\u00a0<strong>investigadores<\/strong>\u00a0dividieron la\u00a0<strong>superficie terrestre<\/strong>\u00a0en celdas sobre una\u00a0<strong>cuadr\u00edcula<\/strong>\u00a0y compararon la frecuencia de las olas de calor y las\u00a0<strong>sequ\u00edas<\/strong>\u00a0en cada celda.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">De esta forma descubrieron que las \u00e1reas terrestres sufrieron aproximadamente cuatro episodios de\u00a0<strong>calor y sequ\u00eda<\/strong>\u00a0al a\u00f1o entre\u00a0<strong>2001 y 2020<\/strong>, lo que representa el doble de la frecuencia que se registraba en el per\u00edodo preindustrial, entre 1850 y 1900.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Y aunque han se\u00f1alado que cuanto m\u00e1s ca\u00f3tico se vuelve el clima m\u00e1s dif\u00edcil resulta hacer pron\u00f3sticos, los cient\u00edficos han corroborado que en el escenario de crecimiento clim\u00e1tico y demogr\u00e1fico m\u00e1s acorde con la trayectoria actual los extremos de\u00a0<strong>calor y sequ\u00eda<\/strong>\u00a0se intensificar\u00edan para el 28 por ciento de la poblaci\u00f3n mundial \u2014casi 2,600 millones de personas\u2014 para la\u00a0<strong>d\u00e9cada de 2090<\/strong>, y un 6.6 por ciento sufrir\u00e1 ese nivel de exposici\u00f3n en la d\u00e9cada de 2030.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Efectos a finales del siglo<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">A nivel mundial, los extremos de\u00a0<strong>calor y sequ\u00eda<\/strong>\u00a0combinados podr\u00edan ocurrir casi\u00a0<strong>10 veces al a\u00f1o<\/strong>\u00a0en promedio para\u00a0<strong>finales de siglo<\/strong>, con los m\u00e1s largos durando alrededor de\u00a0<strong>15 d\u00edas<\/strong>, lo que representa un aumento de 2.4 y 2.7 veces con respecto a las condiciones de los \u00faltimos 25 a\u00f1os, respectivamente.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Los\u00a0<strong>investigadores<\/strong>\u00a0han concluido que son las\u00a0<strong>emisiones humanas<\/strong>\u00a0de gases de efecto invernadero las que impulsan estos cambios, ya que cuando analizaron simulaciones considerando \u00fanicamente\u00a0<strong>fuerzas naturales<\/strong>, no se observaron tendencias significativas en la frecuencia o en la duraci\u00f3n de los extremos de\u00a0<strong>calor y sequ\u00eda<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Tambi\u00e9n han concluido que los pa\u00edses que m\u00e1s emiten no ser\u00e1n los que sufran los\u00a0<strong>mayores impactos<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Asimismo, seg\u00fan la distribuci\u00f3n geogr\u00e1fica del riesgo en las 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https:\/\/infoelnuevonorte.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Logo-3d-infoenn-con-fondo-blanco-1068x383.jpg 1068w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 240px) 100vw, 240px\" \/><\/a>El Nuevo Norte<\/strong> es un peri\u00f3dico digital dominicano fundado el <strong data-start=\"65\" data-end=\"90\">12 de febrero de 2006<\/strong> por el periodista <strong data-start=\"109\" data-end=\"129\">Junior Henr\u00edquez<\/strong>, quien funge como director y fundador. 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Los dos eventos (sequ\u00eda y\u00a0calor extremo) [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":206871,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>El calor extremo y las sequ\u00edas ser\u00e1n cinco veces m\u00e1s frecuentes al final del siglo | El Nuevo Norte<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/infoelnuevonorte.com\/?p=206869\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El calor extremo y las sequ\u00edas ser\u00e1n cinco veces m\u00e1s frecuentes al final del siglo | El Nuevo Norte\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La combinaci\u00f3n del\u00a0calor extremo\u00a0y las\u00a0sequ\u00edas\u00a0ser\u00e1n\u00a0cinco veces m\u00e1s frecuentes\u00a0al final del siglo si se mantienen las pol\u00edticas clim\u00e1ticas actuales. Este es un fen\u00f3meno que afectar\u00e1 gravemente a cerca del 30 por ciento de la poblaci\u00f3n y que impactar\u00e1 m\u00e1s a los\u00a0pa\u00edses tropicales\u00a0con\u00a0menos ingresos, los que menos contribuyen al calentamiento global. 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